Beware entering the stock mkt now
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Just be careful, especially with what analysts said
This is my chart:
From today's performance, STI seems to have broken out of the rising wedge that was being formed...... downwards...
Disclaimer: Not an inducement to follow
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You do technical analysis?
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Originally posted by deepak.c:
You do technical analysis?
I do it to help guide my Fundamental Analysis
It's quite fun... :D
More of a hobby...But then... dun enter for at least a few days to a week plus... see situation...
Those I bought at very low prices, I keep long term
Those bought in May, I exited mostly, other than Starhub and ST Engg types of defensive plays
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Normally after afew increases, will be met by correction.
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Originally posted by deepak.c:
Normally after afew increases, will be met by correction.
pple tell me that, and told me I'm mad when I entered starhub at 1.91 a month ago :(
But to me, it's a game of probabiltiy... about the risk/reward ratio...
Then again, my main bulk is in defensive sectorsAnyway... not going to say more... This is something in which one must be really humble... I'm only a beginner...
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Originally posted by eagle:
Just be careful, especially with what analysts said
This is my chart:
From today's performance, STI seems to have broken out of the rising wedge that was being formed...... downwards...
Disclaimer: Not an inducement to follow
Oh i see...
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Wah.... I wanna learn man...
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after I mention.... STI continue to drop another 40 pts...
today... I guess will be mild green because of the heavy suppression yesterday... But this time no basis...
Now is dangerous zone, I don't dare to touch liao... STI might rise to 2683 according to fibonnaci retracement u see in the chart, but hor... dangerous territory... Upside not a downside, downside got more... But I might still have underestimated the excess liquidity floating around printed by governments worldwide...
Nowdays, STI don't really follow Dow, so don't put much basis on Dow.
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Sold some bought some. I dun even really know whats going on atm. lol
Have to wait end of year meet up. Bought a few new stocks that i dont even know what it is, what it does . lol
Cant know everything , dont have the hands to do everything.
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liquidity driven rally
too much money printed worldwide... and it has to go somewhere... so stock market lor...
I believe a lot of aunties and uncles in sg still hv lots of cash from their en bloc sale
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Cash is king baby!
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all i can say is treat such financial data analysis with caution. i have an uncle who do the same kind of analysis diligently on a daily basis to see where the market is heading. he has good technical ability to read the stock market data and guess what.....he got burnt big time when the market crashed and he never recovered. he was on a roll for a while but bad luck caught up with him. luckily, his siblings bailed him out and now, he didn't even look at the sti index anymore.
more recently, another relative from my wife's side got whacked by the most recent meltdown. i had to chip in a few thousand $ to help him out.
i believe on the 3 things below:
1. know/understand the business of the company you are investing in(something i picked up from reading warren buffett)
2. be able to absorb the losses. i go in knowing that if i lose 90% of the monies on the stocks i bought, i can still go on with my life. my kids will still go for their swimming and tennis lessons uninterrupted.
3. don't be greedy.
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Originally posted by redDUST:
all i can say is treat such financial data analysis with caution. i have an uncle who do the same kind of analysis diligently on a daily basis to see where the market is heading. he has good technical ability to read the stock market data and guess what.....he got burnt big time when the market crashed and he never recovered. he was on a roll for a while but bad luck caught up with him. luckily, his siblings bailed him out and now, he didn't even look at the sti index anymore.
more recently, another relative from my wife's side got whacked by the most recent meltdown. i had to chip in a few thousand $ to help him out.
i believe on the 3 things below:
1. know/understand the business of the company you are investing in(something i picked up from reading warren buffett)
2. be able to absorb the losses. i go in knowing that if i lose 90% of the monies on the stocks i bought, i can still go on with my life. my kids will still go for their swimming and tennis lessons uninterrupted.
3. don't be greedy.
Sry... but to be truthful, to me, your uncle earning in a bull market is not ability at all.
I'm more of FA + TA person combined. In 2007, valuations were sky high, and it's damn dumb to enter. Upside potential was so low, and downside was so high...
Even using TA, one can see that STI has broken the trendline support at that time, so I doubt your uncle really know how to read. I don't even dare to say I can read well... Playing with part knowledge in this area is something very dangerous... Greed and emotion had overtaken objectivity.
And about the relative with the most recent meltdown in March, he/she must have played with money he/she didn't have or need in short term. And that's also dumb to me... You must hv the money to hold.
I got caught in the most recent meltdown as well, seeing my portfolio going down by 40%. But it was already good valuations, and I held on till it is positive now. E.g. Capitaland, many would tell me my price of $2.26 was expensive back then, and they are waiting for $1.50. Right now, many are saying $3 is cheap. It's like... wth?
In short, they didn't follow your 3 points of extremely sound advice. Especially part 3 about cannot be greedy.
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Originally posted by eagle:
Sry... but to be truthful, to me, your uncle earning in a bull market is not ability at all.
I'm more of FA + TA person combined. In 2007, valuations were sky high, and it's damn dumb to enter. Upside potential was so low, and downside was so high...
Even using TA, one can see that STI has broken the trendline support at that time, so I doubt your uncle really know how to read. I don't even dare to say I can read well... Playing with part knowledge in this area is something very dangerous... Greed and emotion had overtaken objectivity.
And about the relative with the most recent meltdown in March, he/she must have played with money he/she didn't have or need in short term. And that's also dumb to me... You must hv the money to hold.
I got caught in the most recent meltdown as well, seeing my portfolio going down by 40%. But it was already good valuations, and I held on till it is positive now. E.g. Capitaland, many would tell me my price of $2.26 was expensive back then, and they are waiting for $1.50. Right now, many are saying $3 is cheap. It's like... wth?
In short, they didn't follow your 3 points of extremely sound advice. Especially part 3 about cannot be greedy.
well, i agree with what you said.
regarding my uncle, each has their own ways and means on reading the market that they think is right, until they got burnt that is. the truth is no one is fully aware of the blindspots that exist. no one has a water-tight, foolproof reading on the market, including you.
my brother devise his own `software' to analyse wall street as well. i steer clear of chatting with him on his methods because i want to keep our relationship going. as you may gather, i disagree with his methods as i have my own views as well, which is more conservative and grounded.
the problem is when one gets carried away thinking that they have the market covered, that's where things can go wrong. it happened to my uncle. my brother hasn't seen the worst yet but the way he's blogging about how accurate his read of the market it, it worries me.
i had my fair share of boo boos. a few years back, i bought a little known stock called human genome sciences from wall street on the advise of my `learned' buddy who's working at ubs. paid something like US$50 per share. i was overcome by greed when my buddy told me that it is a us$100 stock in 12 months. that company works on finding cure for a number of critical, chronic illnesses. so, it is a high risk stock, which i am aware of. still, i mean, how many have heard of a cure for cancer (yet)? i should have known but i still went in `blind', probably blindsided by the prospective gain. i have never heard of the company other than a few pdfs my ubs fren sent nor am i familiar with the medical industry. i exited the stock after it went below $30/share, knowing that i will probably not be able to salvage anything. luckily, i can take the hit.
as for my wife's uncle, i agree it's pure greed. when the sti was booming, a blind person would be able to pick the winning counters. so, he got carried away. what irks me is he never learn. the sti has a good run of late, and he's back into it. i explicitly told my wife if he ever get himself into the situation like 7 months ago, i am not giving him a single cent. once bitten, twice shy.
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yup, those are very sound words
I don't have a foolproof way of identifying, I humbly agree. But what's foolproof is just buy blue chip stocks when STI < 1800 and hold till STI >3000
If your wife's uncle is going to enter the mkt again, I really have nothing to say... Really treating it like a gambling den... I entered in the middle of the run-up, so at that time, upside still had quite a way to go based on my extremely shaky understanding of Elliot Wave Principle... But right now, I don't dare to enter, other than perhaps nibble a bit when STI reaches 2nd support at 2180... Not sure who will enter right now....
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Originally posted by BadzMaro:
Sold some bought some. I dun even really know whats going on atm. lol
Have to wait end of year meet up. Bought a few new stocks that i dont even know what it is, what it does . lol
Cant know everything , dont have the hands to do everything.
U have to be careful then.... lots of people lose money when people just buy according to hear'say and join the bandwagon without doing much research on the company.
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Short term
My Elliot Wave labelling... Might be wrong though...
http://xs840.xs.to/xs840/09240/2009jun-straits_times-800x1145-2896.png
Means STI might still go up further to 2500+, given the bullish flag formation and a possible subwave (v) forming... Once again, might be wrong hor...
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Originally posted by redDUST:
well, i agree with what you said.
regarding my uncle, each has their own ways and means on reading the market that they think is right, until they got burnt that is. the truth is no one is fully aware of the blindspots that exist. no one has a water-tight, foolproof reading on the market, including you.
my brother devise his own `software' to analyse wall street as well. i steer clear of chatting with him on his methods because i want to keep our relationship going. as you may gather, i disagree with his methods as i have my own views as well, which is more conservative and grounded.
the problem is when one gets carried away thinking that they have the market covered, that's where things can go wrong. it happened to my uncle. my brother hasn't seen the worst yet but the way he's blogging about how accurate his read of the market it, it worries me.
i had my fair share of boo boos. a few years back, i bought a little known stock called human genome sciences from wall street on the advise of my `learned' buddy who's working at ubs. paid something like US$50 per share. i was overcome by greed when my buddy told me that it is a us$100 stock in 12 months. that company works on finding cure for a number of critical, chronic illnesses. so, it is a high risk stock, which i am aware of. still, i mean, how many have heard of a cure for cancer (yet)? i should have known but i still went in `blind', probably blindsided by the prospective gain. i have never heard of the company other than a few pdfs my ubs fren sent nor am i familiar with the medical industry. i exited the stock after it went below $30/share, knowing that i will probably not be able to salvage anything. luckily, i can take the hit.
as for my wife's uncle, i agree it's pure greed. when the sti was booming, a blind person would be able to pick the winning counters. so, he got carried away. what irks me is he never learn. the sti has a good run of late, and he's back into it. i explicitly told my wife if he ever get himself into the situation like 7 months ago, i am not giving him a single cent. once bitten, twice shy.
Well said. RedDust.
U and I have the same investment strategy.
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Ok, today I going to enter CapitaComm
The mother share is at 0.86, and rights at 0.25
Going for the rights because I going for long term, since subscribing at 59 cents gives only 84 cents per share.
Downside risk is at max 60 cents, so about 25 cents risk. Upside potential can be near $2, so it's about $1 upside exclude 7% dividend yield. Good ratio in my opinion.
Strategy: Queue 6 lots at 0.25 + 2 lots at 0.24
Once get, subscribe all rights + 4000 excess rights :DWish me huat :D
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Any stock that can be bought with around $50?
That's all I have in my account.
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Brokerage fee + GST is already around $30 for poems
Anyway, I sold some when a lot started to get greedy thinking mkt will still rise a lot because of so many analysts bullish reports...
Now most seem quite fearful... The fear factor of dropping is higher because of the March lows, and most pple are comparing prices with then.... so I buy now... 130 pts since my call enough for me... might go down lower... but I believe in CapComm, will load more instead by then...
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managed to enter at 0.25 6 lots, but now it shot up 0.265... dun think my 0.24 will hit liao
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in an ideal world, last march prices were the lowest and that was the time to buy.
now is still considered cheap if you compare them to the highs of 2007.
the market is still volatile, as the worst is not over yet. but if you hang them on for the long term, the price will rise in the long term.
but prepared to ride them out in this volatile market.
if you are not sure if this is the time to buy, then stay in the sidelines and observe.
better avoid those penny shares, or companies that are not considered as blue chip. better buy blue chips in this climate.
